May 11, 2021
Every month the jobs report is closely watched. But the April report has some special significance. Late last year the jobs recovery stalled as cases of COVID soared. But lately we have had better news. In March we added over 900,000 jobs. Another economic stimulus package was passed, and the economy’s first quarter growth rate exceeded 6.0%, according to initial estimates.
As far as COVID is concerned, we seemed to have turned the corner as tens of millions are now vaccinated with more on the way. All-in-all, we are painting a much rosier picture than we were just a few months ago. The April employment data serves to tell us whether the momentum will continue. You can’t have a recovery unless more people go to work. So how did we do last month?
The addition of 266,000 jobs was considered disappointing, as projections were for a much higher number. In addition, the previous two months of data, while much higher, was revised downward by 78,000 jobs. The labor participation and unemployment rates were little unchanged. What does this mean? We still have millions of jobs to recover before we can say that the recovery is complete. That will take some time. The monthly data is volatile and one month does not represent clear proof that we are not on pace for a full recovery. It will be interesting to see whether job creation accelerates again from here.
Source: Origination PRO