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There Are Predictions and Then There Are Predictions

April 18, 2023

We are now over one-quarter of the way through the year. We will soon have the first measure of economic growth for the first quarter of the year – just in time for the Federal Reserve to meet again and decide whether to raise short-term rates again. Thus, we feel that it is about time that we revisit the predictions we reviewed at the end of 2022. Spoiler alert – most predictions were off the mark. For example, Fannie Mae predicted a recession to start in the first quarter of this year. After the economy produced 800,000 jobs in the first two months of the year, they have shifted the forecast of a slight recession during the second half of the year.

Since the economy is stronger than predicted, mortgage rates should have risen higher than forecasted. Yet, the Realtor.com housing forecast predicted average mortgage rates of 7.4% in 2023, with a peak during the first half of the year. In reality, mortgage rates have not risen to these levels, so unless they spike from here, we are not likely to reach these heights. In addition, we went back and did a review, but did not see many predictions of a banking crisis and certainly did not see a specific warning about the largest bank that went down. Silicon Valley Bank was the second largest banking failure in history.

Some are now predicting that the concerns in the banking sector are what may finally tip the economy into recession. Time and time again we have indicated that predicting the future is futile. If any of these high paid prognosticators could actually predict the future with some accuracy, they would be investing in financial futures and making a fortune. As for us, we like an economy that has defied expectations on the plus side and hope it continues while inflation continues to ease. Probably not as fast as the Fed would like, but that is another story. 

Source: Origination Pro

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Testimonials

Eli N

Benny and Phil were great to work with! they assisted us in every aspect of the process even when it wasn’t their job. They explained every step and guided/advised us on the best course of action. Their fees were more than fair and their integrity was at a level far above ANY lawyer or mortgage broker we have ever dealt with.

Joe D.

Philip Loria made the mortgage process quick and easy, and also found ways to save us money. He was always on top of things, very accessible, and his communication is top notch. I will recommend Philip Loria and Amerimutual Mortgage highly to any of my friends, family or colleagues.

Joe D. Long Island, NY
Ninfa Brusca

Philip and Benny Loria were very knowledgeable and professional. They exceeded all our expectations and were a pleasure to work with. They were both were just genuinely nice guys. They listened to all our concerns and did everything in their power to accommodate our needs and make feel comfortable throughout the whole mortgage process. I recommend Amerimutual Mortgage to anyone who is looking for a mortgage.

Ninfa Brusca Tuckahoe, NY
Lenny P., Occupation: Real Estate Development

Richard, I wanted to thank you for all your help and hard work. I am so glad our refinance was a success. You were very diligent and dedicated to getting me the best rate possible. I truly enjoyed working with you and will recommend your services to all our friends and family.

Lenny P., Rye, New York
Nick Tsatsaronis

Philip Loria, assisted me with my refinance. Thank you so much for all of your time and hard work. You made refinancing my house easy and stress free. I wouldn’t recommend anyone else. I will definitely use Amerimutual Mortgage for any future needs, and recommend them to anyone who needs a mortgage.

Nick Tsatsaronis Flushing, NY
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