October 31, 2017
We rarely get to publish on Halloween (technically once every seven years) and thus we could not resist the headline. There are many theories about the origins of Halloween and evidence of somewhat similar practices go back as far as the Middle Ages. Like other holidays in the United States, Halloween has evolved and grown and become a big commercial — or dare we say “sweet” — success. For some it is the real start of the holiday season in which our economy has grown so dependent upon.
Like every jobs report, every holiday season is a very important indicator of the direction of our economy. Consumer spending makes up about 70 percent of gross domestic product, and a solid chunk of it takes place in November and December, mainly in the form of gift purchases. A fifth of all retail sales occur in the year’s last two months, according to the National Retail Federation. Thus, these holidays are very, very important to our economy.
Speaking of the jobs report, the time has come for another reading. Last month the numbers were skewed as expected because of two major hurricanes. During this month’s statistical period we added another major hurricane and also devastating wildfires in Northern California. Thus, we are expecting major volatility in the numbers. This volatility may not only apply to the October numbers, but also to the revision of the September numbers already released. It will be hard for the markets to interpret these numbers, and therefore reactions may be muted as well.
Source: Origination Pro
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