February 9, 2021
The January jobs report gives us our first look at the job market as we begin 2021. We entered 2021 knowing that the economy had lost approximately ten million jobs that we have yet to recover. We were making good progress on recovering jobs before the winter COVID spike hit. We now look for the cases to start falling as spring comes near and the national vaccination program takes hold.
The paltry 49,000 jobs added in January was only the latest reminder that the economy has a long way to go in order to dig out of the hole COVID put us in. The previous two months of data were revised downward as well. The unemployment rate moved down from 6.7% to 6.3%, a surprise on the upside — but it does not appear the dip came from job creation. Regardless, the unemployment rate is down from a peak of 14.7% in April of last year when the economy came to a halt.
The operative question is how long will it take the economy to fully recover? Another shot of stimulus would help. The speed and success of the vaccination program will have a lot of say about this as well. And different sectors of the economy will recover at different speeds. While the real estate sector has already recovered, other areas like the travel and entertainment industries will have a longer road to travel. Their success will be a good measure of our return to normalcy in 2021.
Source: Origination Pro
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