December 26, 2023
And so ends another year. While challenging from a real estate perspective, the year has been quite extraordinary. Conventional wisdom would have put our economy into recession after the Federal Reserve proceeded to raise interest rates eleven times from March of 2022 to July of 2023. Yet the economy continued creating a plethora of jobs and kept expanding. It just was not supposed to happen this way. Yet, there are no textbooks to explain what happens to an economy when you close it down due to a pandemic.
The real estate boom, strong stock market and inflation were all a by-product of the pandemic-induced economy. And we suspect that at least part of the resiliency of the economy in the face of much higher rates was also due to the pandemic-induced booms, as consumers had gained plenty of equity to help them stave off bad times. From here, it is expected that consumer spending will finally wane, and we will see a slower economy and perhaps even a mild recession in 2024. Of course, that is just speculation.
If interest rates continue to ease in 2024, as they have in the last quarter of 2023, there is always the possibility of the economy picking up in the new year. In our first edition of 2024, we will present some of the major forecasts for the year, with our usual warning. Caution: there is no way to predict the future. We would love to see lower rates and a more robust real estate market in 2024, but we will have to wait and see. Meanwhile, have a great holiday week and don’t forget to rest up for another interesting year ahead.
Source: Origination Pro
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