July 29, 2025
Every month we have important economic data releases and events. But only a few times per year do we have the most important releases lined up during the same week. Our definition of a trifecta is a week in which we have the first reading of economic growth for a quarter (Second Quarter GDP), a meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the jobs report (BLS Employment Situation). This week is trifecta week as all the stars have aligned to bring us all three events within three days.
Such a confluence of events would ordinarily bring the potential of volatility to the markets, and this trifecta is no exception. As a matter of fact, recent news has served to raise the stakes this time around. For example, there is unprecedented pressure from the Administration being placed on the Fed to act on lower rates, which is very unusual since the Fed acts as an independent agency. Add the fact that the first quarter showed negative economic growth, which means that a second quarter of negative growth would add to this pressure.
One area which has been a strong point for the economy for the past several years has been the creation of jobs. It is hard to envision a recession within an economy which is creating plenty of jobs. The jobs report will be released two days after the Fed meets, and the GDP report is released. Therefore, it will be hard to factor this data into the Fed’s decision. Regardless of the results, this week will serve to be a very interesting period for the markets. Hang onto your hats!
Source: Origination Pro
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