December 2, 2025
The government shutdown caused a major back-up of government data, and we are in the midst of seeing the spigot of data being released. This is very timely because the Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet one week from today and, unlike their last meeting, they are likely to have some, but not all the data they need in order to make a decision regarding cutting rates one more time in 2025. Not all the back-up of releases may be issued by the time of the meeting and some of the releases are expected to be incomplete and even others not released at all.
For example, on November 20th we saw the release of the jobs data for September. That release indicated that the economy produced 114,000 jobs in September, higher than expected, but still slower than 2024’s data. The unemployment rate rose one tick to 4.4%, which is the highest in almost four years. Wage inflation was slightly elevated. The October report is not going to be released, and November’s report is expected to be delayed until mid-December. In addition, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is also being cancelled because of incomplete survey data.
Jobs and inflation are certainly headline reports, but there is an avalanche of additional data which has started to flow. Of major importance is the estimate of economic growth for the third quarter. The original estimate was due October 30th and the third, or final estimate was to be released in mid-December. Now the initial estimate is to be released in late December. There are also measures of retail sales, sales of new homes, factory orders, orders for durable goods and more. It will take some time to make sense of the multitude of releases as the government catches up, but the Fed will not have the luxury of time to analyze the data. It would not be surprising if the uncertainty of this scattered release schedule translates into increased volatility within the markets as 2025 comes to a close. In other words, hang onto your seat belt!
Source: Origination Pro
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