February 17, 2026
Last week’s “delayed” employment report contained the first major data of 2026. The growth of jobs was decidedly weak during the last quarter of 2025. So, how did we do at the onset of the new year? In January the economy produced 130,000 jobs, which was more than expected. The unemployment rate was reported at 4.3% down from 4.4% the previous month. In addition, the previous two months of job gains/losses were revised downward by 17,000, putting the overall net at plus 113,000. Generally, this report was seen as solid, which is significant after the weak finish of 2025.
On the inflation front, wages grew 0.4% monthly and 3.7% annually. This was slightly higher than expected, indicating inflation is still with us. The Federal Reserve does not meet again until March, thus there will be plenty of additional inflation data for them to assess over the next month when they consider what to do with regard to lowering interest rates. Certainly, the fact that the jobs report was solid will be an important consideration contributing to this decision. The week finished out with a release of consumer inflation for January. The CPI was up 0.2% monthly and 2.4% year-over-year. The core numbers excluding food and energy were up 0.3% monthly and 2.5% year-over-year. These numbers show an easing of the inflation rate.
It would be interesting to know whether the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee would have changed their opinion on the rate pause if they were able to review January’s jobs report and the January inflation data before they met. There is an old saying – “hindsight is 20/20.” In this case we are pretty sure these numbers would not have changed their decision to hold rates steady. Between the government shutdown and the spike in producer prices in December, the picture probably still would not have been clear-cut. Between the delay of January’s jobs report and the short month of February, the next employment numbers will be coming down the pike before we realize it.
Source: Origination Pro
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