March 17, 2026
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets this week. A few weeks ago, market prognosticators were absolutely sure there would be no further movement by the Fed to lower rates again for the foreseeable future. Afterall, we have seen some positive economic news, and it is obvious that the fight against inflation is not finished by any means. Oh, we have had a plethora of economic news to chew on in addition to the inflation data – including the most recent jobs data showing that the economy had lost over 90,000 jobs last month.

But as we always warn our readers, predictions are futile because there is always the imposition of unknowns hitting us when we least expect it. Two weeks ago, we had no idea that the Fed would be meeting in the middle of a regional war sparked by our own country. It is not unusual for the Fed to act to calm the markets when there are significant occurrences causing major disruptions. And certainly, the situation in the Middle East qualifies as such.
Of course, with the Fed there are also counterbalancing forces. In this case the price of oil is one such phenomenon. Surging oil prices certainly have the ability to cause a rekindling of world-wide inflation. And it is not just the price of energy that could be affected, as wars have a direct effect of increased government spending for such things as military hardware and reconstruction of affected countries. Thus, the Fed faces a major conundrum. The stability of the markets will be paramount, but the long-term effects of war are going to factor into the equation. Certainly, these are very interesting and sober times we are experiencing today.
Source: Origination Pro
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