March 31, 2026
Let’s go back to the end of February. After a year of tepid job gains, slow housing growth and higher-than expected interest rates, things were starting to look up. We had a solid month of job growth in January and mortgage rates were moving down enough to entice prospective homebuyers to start shopping again. Plus, those who purchased more recently were starting to refinance in greater numbers. Even inflation, though it had not reached the Federal Reserve’s target, was stabilizing at a tolerable level. In other words, there were plenty of reasons for optimism.
Then the calendar moved on. The first salvo was fired literally at Iran. Unlike the limited strikes of last year, this conflict represented a sharp escalation in intensity. Immediately, oil prices surged, causing significant concerns about the future of inflation. Not surprisingly, mortgage rates rose from the recent lows, despite the labor department reporting that the growth of jobs we witnessed in January was erased the very next month. The stock market reacted as we would expect, with heavy losses in reaction to slower growth and the fear of higher inflation.
Thus, the term stagflation is being dusted off by market analysts. All this news is just a sober reminder that predictions are impossible. Plus, markets can change on a dime. If the conflict is short-lived, the stock markets and mortgage rates could reverse their directions overnight. If the conflict continues for a longer period, there is concern about long-term damage to the economy. One thing we do know is that the consumer is resilient. If mortgage rates head back down, there is a significant amount of pent-up demand for homes and there is still the potential for a bounce-back year in 2026.
Source: Origination Pro
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AMERIMUTUAL MORTGAGE (NMLS# 148447) Address: 18-33 41st Street, 2nd Floor, Astoria, NY 11105 Tel: (718) 943-9200 Fax: (718) 204 – 0657
Backed by a long history of integrity and driven by a commitment to enrich the community of Astoria Queens and the surrounding neighborhoods of Queens, Brooklyn, NYC and Long Island, AMERIMUTUAL Mortgage is family-owned and operated local business that is proud to make a difference by matching home buyers with the right mortgage products for their needs.
As a respected leader in the NYC, New York lending business, AMERIMUTUAL has been successful in revolutionizing the industry one mortgage at a time. Our company values are grounded in the principles of honesty and fair dealing. For you, this means responsible lending with reasonable fees and you can enjoy a worry-free lending experience from a local Astoria, NY business you can trust.