June 13, 2017
We have previously brought up the real estate listing shortages which seems to be constraining the real estate market while price growth continues. This shortage of real estate listings presents a major opportunity for builders. Of course, builders are facing several shortages as well and these are constraining their ability to keep up with demand, especially within the first-time buyer market. These shortages include a lack of skilled labor and a lack of buildable lots in many areas. Thus, there are several shortages which are constraining the growth of the real estate market.
Could these shortages be related to the labor situation? We had another jobs report recently which showed a similar pattern. The number of jobs added was disappointing again. Yet, the unemployment rate moved to lows not seen since 2001. Could it be that we are running into a labor shortage? With the overall labor participation rate low, we expected that people would be coming back into the labor force as jobs were created, but perhaps their skills do not match the types of jobs that are open. Similarly, there are plenty of buildable lots in America, but not near many cities which are growing.
If the Federal Reserve Board meets this week feeling that we are facing a labor shortage and that wages are about to rise, they are likely to raise rates. If they feel that we just need to create more jobs, then they may not raise rates. While this one question may be an over-simplification of the situation and will not be the only one they face, it will be interesting to hear their statement after the meeting.
Source: Origination Pro