The initial reaction with regard to the slightly disappointing August jobs numbers, was speculation that a rate hike was less likely to result from the meeting of the Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee next week. Keep in mind that many are speculating that the Fed will be reticent to take any actions at the following meeting, which takes place a few days before the Presidential election. The Fed is not likely to admit that the date of an election would be reason to hold off on taking necessary fiscal action, but logic tells us that the Fed will not want to be perceived as having any influence in the political process, speculative or not.
If we are correct in this assumption, the Fed might look long and hard at their meeting next week, if indeed their next chance to raise rates will be in December. And if that happens, that will mean the Fed will have raised rates two Decembers in a row. Certainly, this schedule would fit the definition of “gradual” rate increases, which we have been hearing about for quite some time.
Though we can’t predict what will happen next week, let alone at the next two meetings, we can say that a lot can happen between now and December, including some sort of shock which influences the economy. Shocks can take
the form of natural disasters, political upheaval, terrorist activity or more. And history tells us that shocks typically affect the economy negatively. Thus, if the Fed does not move next week, they will need to see continued improvement in the economy and no major shocks which provide risks to the downside.
Source: Origination Pro