September 3, 2019
August is over and done with. But we can say it was not the usual, “dog days of summer” August. Usually everyone is on vacation in August and the markets go through a lull. But this August there was plenty of fireworks. The stock market was extremely volatile with violent swings in both directions. Long-term interest rates fell and the trade war rhetoric soared. Again, it was not your usual August by any means.
We ended the month with a revised reading of economic growth for the second quarter. This revision confirmed that the economy is cooling down somewhat. Now that August is over, it is hard to believe that market activity could actually pick up as we move into September. But the very first week we will have the release of the job numbers for August. One has to surmise whether this crazy August might still have some punch going into September.
The question is whether the trade war news and market volatility kept businesses from adding workers in August. Keep in mind that the August jobs report is based upon a survey that takes place in the middle of the month. Thus, the full effect of the volatile month may not be reflected in the actual number. At this point, most everyone is predicting another rate decrease in September, which is already priced into the markets. Only a really strong jobs report would be likely to change this prediction.
Source: Origination Pro