December 19, 2023 We have had plenty of false starts during the past 18 months or so. Periods in which interest rates either paused or even dropped a little. The latest movement in the right direction seems to not only have lasted longer than most periods, but also has been accompanied by encouraging data on […]
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December 12, 2023 Today is the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. Well, for the year anyway. Though technically, the Fed can call an emergency session at any time if a crisis takes place. For example, the “Black Monday” stock market crash of October of 1987. There were emergency rate cuts in […]
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November 21, 2023 This week we will celebrate Thanksgiving. As is tradition, we will count the ways in which we should be thankful – no matter how challenging the year has been! From a personal perspective, we hope that you all have had a great year. From a business perspective, it is probably easier this […]
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November 14, 2023 We will ask three mortgage questions this week. First, why are mortgage rates so high? We know why interest rates are high—the Federal Reserve has increased short-term rates to deal with stubborn inflation. But mortgage rates have risen far more than the rates on Treasuries. One reason? In addition to the Fed […]
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November 7, 2023 Well, it is settled. There will not be a recession in 2023 despite the fact that just about every market analyst was predicting one to start this year. This does not mean that a recession won’t hit in 2024. As a matter of fact, we are convinced that a recession is more […]
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October 17, 2023 Bonds are in a significant bear market. A bear market in bonds is different than the typical bear market we discuss – which is the stock market. While both are characterized by a drop in prices (for stocks it is typically 20%) – a bear market in stocks is typically accompanied by […]
Read More October 10, 2023 Back to the topic of higher rates for longer, as the members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee keep delivering a central message to the public at large through their statements. The message is that rates are not high enough to bring inflation down to where they would like. While they […]
Read More October 3, 2023 The vast majority of analysts forecasted a recession in the second half of 2023. We are now more than half-way through the second half and there are no signs of a recession, except in the housing sector. However, the economy continues to slow down from the solid growth of the first half […]
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September 26, 2023 We are almost through three-quarters of the year. And if we had a word to describe this year, it would be persistence. As a matter of fact, persistence could describe the past 15 years. Yes, it has been 15 years since the Great Recession. And the effects of the Great Recession persisted […]
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September 5, 2023 We always say that predicting the future is futile. This year is no exception. The analysts were expecting a recession sometime this year. It did not happen. They also expected interest rates to start easing down as the year went on. Instead, as the second half of the year began, interest rates […]
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