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First Part of The “Two-Fer”

July 9, 2024 In the previous commentary, we promised a chance at a “two-fer” which could help put pressure on interest rates to ease down in the second half of the year. We have already had a decent move downward in interest rates, but there is so much more work to be done in this […]

Can We Get a “Two-Fer”?

July 2, 2024 In the interest of seeing lower interest rates, we have had some hits and misses in the past few months. Two months ago, we had a moderate jobs report, but stronger than expected inflation numbers. Last month we had a strong jobs report but weaker than expected inflation numbers. Thus, we now […]

Is the Fed Over-Communicating?

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June 25, 2024 The Federal Reserve Board has always been very careful regarding making public statements that will affect the markets. As a matter of fact, in years past the Fed was much more clandestine regarding their opinions to avoid roiling investors. So much so that there were complaints about the Fed not being open […]

The Fed and Inflation

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June 18, 2024 Last week we had a meeting of the Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee and the release of the latest inflation data. Curious about the direction of interest rates? These two events represent bellwethers in this regard. We are looking to the Fed for signals as to when they might take their […]

Another Month Strong of Jobs Gains

If the Federal Reserve is waiting for the economy to slow down before it eases interest rates, there is no doubt that they are watching the monthly jobs report for a significant clue. Thus far this year, there has been no sign that the economy is producing less jobs each month. The pace of the […]

Is March The Month?

February 13, 2024 The Federal Reserve has been quite busy this decade. We started this decade with an economy-halting pandemic in March of 2020. The Fed reacted quickly, pushing short-term rates to zero, as well as adding significant qualitative stimulus in the form of purchasing treasuries and mortgages, further pushing down long-term interest rates as […]

All About Jobs

January 9, 2024 Want to know how strong the economy will be in 2024? Well, it is all about jobs. A healthy economy creates more jobs and the more jobs created, the healthier the economy becomes because those with jobs spend more every month. In 2023, the economy was predicted to evolve into a recession. […]

The Tide is Turning

May 23, 2023 For a year we have had to deal with rising interest rates and lower home affordability. Much of this was expected after record-low interest rates helped fuel a real estate purchasing frenzy which resulted in prices increasing by double digits for the past few years. Fast forward to today, and home prices […]

Triple Play

January 31. 2023 This week gives us a plethora of data which could help determine how 2023 is shaping up to be. We started out Thursday with the first measure of growth for the last quarter of 2022, which gives us an idea of how we closed out the year. The GDP came in at a […]

Are We Expecting Too Much?

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May 4, 2021 If you are reading the forecasts being released for this year, the optimism for a strong rebound has hit unprecedented highs. There has been plenty of data to support such optimism. This data has included a gain of nearly one million jobs in March. Add plenty of stimulus dollars to the equation, […]