March 1, 2022

We think there are about a thousand game shows on television. Now we can add our own economic game show – guess what the Federal Reserve Board will do at their next meeting in a few weeks. The answers seem to be coming from all over the place. Toward the latter half of last year, we were betting on when they will raise rates for the first time. Some were betting on the second half of 2022.

As the year came to a close, the bets landed on the March meeting. A quarter of one-percent increase was the most popular bet. It looked like we could have two to four increases this year. Then two things happened. First, we had a very strong jobs report for January. This report included a major revision of the previous two months of data. Secondly, inflation has kept accelerating. The January numbers were the highest in the past 40 years. The predictions soared from there. These included a .50% rate increase in March and up to seven increases in 2022.

And just to make things more complicated, we have now interjected the invasion of Ukraine into the equation. Some feel that the Fed is less likely to act aggressively and jeopardize the economic recovery while the conflict is transpiring. Plus, we have one more employment report and one more inflation report to be released before the Fed meets. These could change the playing field. The jobs report is due to be released this Friday. Thus, there is still time for you to play the only game in town—guess the Fed!

Source: Origination Pro

Searching for a home loan mortgage, refinance or other mortgage products? Call the trusted, local mortgage brokers in Astoria, Queens NY –

(718) 943-9200

NY MUTUAL LLC DBA AMERIMUTUAL MORTGAGE | 18-33 41st Street, 2nd Floor, Astoria, NY 11105 | NMLS # 148477. Registered Mortgage Broker-NYS Department of Financial Services – All mortgage loans arranged with third party providers.