August 5, 2025
The economic trifecta has come and gone. Though the markets are likely to continue to react to the news, we are here to report the results of our three big economic events. First the government released the initial measure of economic growth for the second quarter of the year. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 3.0% for the quarter, a rebound from the negative first quarter. If this number holds up through two revisions, this means that the economy is showing a 1.75% growth rate for the first half of the year. It is hard to assess how strong the economy is with businesses reacting to tariff warnings and implementations, which are changing the import numbers significantly.
How did the Federal Reserve react to the rebound on the very same day? The Fed concluded their meeting with an announcement that short-term rates will remain the same, which was not unexpected. In the announcement accompanying their decision, the Fed indicated that they continue to weigh the potential effects of tariffs on inflation.There was also another measure of inflation which was released last week after the Fed concluded their meeting. The PCE Inflation Index indicated that expenditure inflation rose 0.3% last month and 2.8% year-over-year, higher than the Fed’s 2.0% target. Personal spending rose 0.3% as well.
Finally, Friday’s employment report provided the third leg of the trifecta. The economy added 73,000 jobs last month and the past two months were revised downward by a huge 258,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Wage inflation increased 0.3% from last month and 3.9% year-over-year. Overall, this report was much weaker than forecasted. Could the Fed’s decision been different if they had access to these numbers before their meeting? On the other hand, it looks like the inflation battle continues.
Source: Origination Pro
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Backed by a long history of integrity and driven by a commitment to enrich the community of Astoria Queens and the surrounding neighborhoods of Queens, Brooklyn, NYC and Long Island, AMERIMUTUAL Mortgage is family-owned and operated local business that is proud to make a difference by matching home buyers with the right mortgage products for their needs.
As a respected leader in the NYC, New York lending business, AMERIMUTUAL has been successful in revolutionizing the industry one mortgage at a time. Our company values are grounded in the principles of honesty and fair dealing. For you, this means responsible lending with reasonable fees and you can enjoy a worry-free lending experience from a local Astoria, NY business you can trust.