December 18, 2018
Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve Board releases their announcement from the conclusion of their last meeting of the year. The Fed will also release their economic projections and Fed Chair Powell will conduct a press conference. The markets have been predicting another 0.25% rate hike all along, though the probabilities have been lowered slightly due to the volatility in the financial markets. If we assume that the markets are correct in their predictions, the real intrigue will be concerning what the Fed says about the future.
As we have indicated in the past few weeks, recent statements from Fed members have hinted about a softening of their approach for next year. The statement released may very well change the viewpoint of those who are making predictions for the coming months. With so much volatility in the financial markets recently, it is becoming harder and harder to figure out where we are heading — not that economic predictions are ever more than stabs in the dark.
There is no doubt that next year will be a harder year for predictions. At the beginning of this year we had a strong stock market and a tax cut providing fuel to the recovery. Though we may still have a Santa Claus rally this year, the markets are much more in flux. The economic recovery will become one decade old in mid-2019. That is very old in “recovery” years. Some believe a recession is inevitable, but not necessarily a sharp recession. We still believe that a slight slowdown could be good news as lower rates could become a possibility. We have already seen rates come off their highs. Perhaps that is our holiday present.
Source: Origination Pro
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