The Jobs Picture
May 11, 2021 Every month the jobs report is closely watched. But the April report has some special significance. Late last year the jobs recovery stalled as cases of COVID soared. But lately we have had better news. In March we added over 900,000 jobs. Another economic stimulus package was passed, and the economy’s first […]
Read MoreAre We Expecting Too Much?
May 4, 2021 If you are reading the forecasts being released for this year, the optimism for a strong rebound has hit unprecedented highs. There has been plenty of data to support such optimism. This data has included a gain of nearly one million jobs in March. Add plenty of stimulus dollars to the equation, […]
Read MoreIs Inflation Coming?
April 13, 2021 Our previous commentary spoke about the importance of inflation with regard to the future of interest rates. We follow with a discussion regarding the threat of inflation. First, we must understand that all sectors of the economy do not experience inflation at the same rate. For example, today we see inflation in […]
Read MoreThe Importance of Inflation
April 6, 2021 Inflation, inflation, inflation. This year, rates have been headed up and we keep hearing this word being uttered again and again. Rates have been rising because there is an elevated threat of inflation. The question is – why are these two concepts linked together so often? Today, we would like to reintroduce […]
Read MoreHow Much is a Trillion Dollars?
March 23, 2021 Well, the issue of additional stimulus is resolved. We keep hearing the term “trillion” being bantered about. How much is a trillion dollars? A trillion dollars is a million dollars multiplied by a million. Or if you prefer, a thousand billion. It has 12 zeroes: $1,000,000,000,000. That is a lot of zeros. […]
Read MoreRising Rates and Stocks Meet the Jobs Numbers
March 9, 2021 What is the definition of a “K-shaped” economic recovery? A “V-shaped” is a quick and sharp recovery and a “U-shaped” recovery is more gradual. The “K-shaped” recovery is bifurcated. This means that certain segments of the recovery are happening at different speeds. In this case, the real estate sector definitely represents the […]
Read MoreImpeachment and Stimulus Redux
February 23, 2021 Just in case you are getting nostalgic for the past few years, we began 2021 with an impeachment trial and a debate concerning the size and need for a stimulus package. Sound familiar? And because this commentary is focused upon economics and not politics, we are more concerned with the arguments for […]
Read MoreIt was a Roller Coaster Year
February 16, 2021 A few weeks ago, we saw the first reading of economic growth for the 4th quarter of last year. Though this number is subject to two revisions, the increase of 4.0% is not expected to change all that much. Taken by itself, a rise of 4.0% would be seen as fairly substantial. […]
Read MoreFirst Jobs Reading of 2021
February 9, 2021 The January jobs report gives us our first look at the job market as we begin 2021. We entered 2021 knowing that the economy had lost approximately ten million jobs that we have yet to recover. We were making good progress on recovering jobs before the winter COVID spike hit. We now […]
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