June 4, 2019
Stocks have been on a general downward trajectory since the trade war with China heated up. This has happened despite the fact that the economy seems to be on solid footing, especially within the area of jobs growth. The initial reading of economic growth for the first quarter of the year was very strong. When the first revision was released last week, the results remained as a positive indicator.
This Friday’s job report represents our first data from May. And it may very well be the most important single data point we will see from that month. Thus far this year, despite volatility, the jobs machine has been chugging along. The question is–will a strong report confirm that we have the economic strength to overcome a protracted trade war? Or will a weak report make us question whether the economy might be vulnerable?
It is no wonder that the Federal Reserve Board keeps using the word “patience” at their meetings. This is because it is hard to know where they should turn from here. The best bet at their next meeting is no action at all. Meanwhile, the trade war induced nervousness in the markets has been beneficial to the bond market and ultimately consumers. This is because interest rates have moved down to levels few thought possible this year. Enjoy the sale on money while you can!
Source: Origination Pro