February 12, 2019
Analysts are still assessing the economic reverberations of the government shutdown. The Congressional Budget Office released the official tally at a whopping eleven billion dollars, but we wonder what secondary and tertiary effects may have multiplied the costs. It is certainly hard to measure the psychological damage that was done. Even the fact that the shutdown could be repeated starting next week can have a psychological influence upon those who are affected.
Before the shutdown, economists were already predicting that the economy would be slowing down — though if the January jobs numbers are any indication, they may be rethinking those predictions. Even so, if the shutdown accelerated this slowdown a bit, the good news is that there will be less pressure on interest rates which have already moved to ten-month lows. That creates an opportunity for home and car shoppers who might take an advantage of more inventory on the market.
Even assessing the economic effects of the shutdown will be difficult as many of the economic reports have been delayed. Of major importance was the measure of growth for the fourth quarter. This report was supposed to be released the last days of January, but now it looks like it will be delayed until the end of February as a combined “first and second” estimate. This will keep analysts in the dark somewhat as to the strength of the economy at the end of last year.
Source: Origination Pro
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