There Are Predictions and Then There Are Predictions
April 18, 2023 We are now over one-quarter of the way through the year. We will soon have the first measure of economic growth for the first quarter of the year – just in time for the Federal Reserve to meet again and decide whether to raise short-term rates again. Thus, we feel that it […]
Read MoreCan The Machine Continue Humming?
April 4, 2023 The employment sector of the economy has been nothing short of amazing. Close to full employment, we lost an amazing number of jobs during the pandemic – close to 25 million. By July of last year, we had recovered those jobs and it was expected that the pace of job creation would […]
Read MoreA Major Reminder
October 18, 2022 All this focus on the jobs report, the Federal Reserve raising rates and other economic reports, sometimes has us putting blinders on. Then something happens that makes us realize that we are not alone in the world. Perhaps it is the pandemic or the war in Ukraine. The bottom line is that […]
Read MoreDoes Negative Growth Indicate Recession?
May 17, 2022 Lately, market analysts have been predicting a recession in our not too distant future. And right on cue, the first reading of economic growth for the first quarter of the year comes in at a negative 1.4%. Since the general definition of a recession is two quarters of negative economic growth, we […]
Read MoreFinally (The Fed)
May 3, 2022 We don’t know about you, but we are tired of hearing that the Federal Reserve Board is going to raise rates at their next meeting. Many years ago, the Fed was somewhat secretive about their intentions so that they were not moving the markets with their words from day-to-day. Well, that era […]
Read MoreThe Employment Picture
April 5, 2022 Between the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the war in Ukraine, it becomes harder to focus upon the day-to-day economic news which tell us how the economy is reacting to these stimuli. There is no more important economic data than the monthly employment report, as the economy’s ability to produce jobs […]
Read MoreThe Fed Spoke — Why Didn’t Rates Rise Immediately?
January 11, 2022 We think it is best to remind our readers when the Federal Reserve hits the headlines. Close to a month ago, the Fed met and came out with some pretty strong statements. First, they sped up the tapering of their purchases of bonds and mortgages after supporting the markets throughout the pandemic. […]
Read MorePost-Thanksgiving
Is the Economy Ready to Roar?
November 23, 2021 We had a strong October jobs report and the Delta variant is fading. Theoretically, this gives us a better chance that the economy’s fourth quarter growth rate will ramp up from the tepid 2.0% performance of the third quarter. But before we declare all systems go for accelerating growth, we do see […]
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