August 28, 2018
Borrowing from the name of a classic movie title, it seems like the focus upon trade keeps moving around the world. From Canada to Europe to China to Turkey. Thus far, we have not seen any negative effect upon economic growth. Tomorrow we will see the first revision of the measure of economic growth for the second quarter, but with the preliminary number at more than a 4.0% rate of growth, few are expecting a surprise on the downside.
On the other hand, the markets seem to be reacting to the long-term possibilities of trade wars. More specifically, when tensions flare up, stocks lose their momentum. On the bright side, interest rates tend to ease down a bit when the markets are worried about these issues. Thus far, when these trade concerns subside or there is news of possible agreements, stocks have been regaining lost ground very quickly.
Where is this leading us? From at least one vantage point, a slight slowing of the economy would not be such a bad thing if it also slows down the pace of rate increases. Economic growth is a positive phenomenon as it creates jobs and wealth, but if the economy heats up too quickly, higher rates could slow the economy more significantly. So, for right now, the markets getting a bit uptight about trade struggles might be just what the doctor ordered — as long as they don’t get out of hand.
Source: Origination Pro
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